Guiding Trends Research
Every ten years, First Fruit makes a careful analysis of major global trends and their impact on our world, to give context to our future grantmaking. After interviewing over 100 leaders in academia, policy, business, NGOs and Christian ministry, we have selected ten trends and five undercurrents which we think will most significantly influence the coming years. We have defined trends as important global shifts that will endure for a number of years. Undercurrents underlie all of the trends and, in fact, are what drive them. They are long-term, wide-ranging and largely empirically provable.
Growth in Islam and Christianity »
3 commentsBoth Islam and Christianity will continue to see rapid but uneven growth. Islam’s growth will be fueled by high birth rates in some traditionally Muslim countries, coupled with immigration to Europe and aggressive expansion in other regions. Christianity will grow in the Global South, primarily driven by Pentecostalism and indigenous missions movements. Conflicts will intensify between these two major religions in many parts of the world.
Prominence of the Global South Church »
1 commentThe West no longer will be the territorial center of Christianity. The rapidly-growing Global South Church will increasingly critique Western approaches, develop its own theologies based on issues such as persecution, poverty and suffering, and in turn will reinvigorate the global Church towards a return to orthodoxy. Indigenous mission movements will use new and creative ways to build structures and raise funds from non-Western sources as the middle class grows within its largely Pentecostal churches. There will be some shifting from Western models in leadership development. More emphasis will be placed on practical, hands-on, and competency-based training and less emphasis on formal theological and graduate-level programs.
Destabilizing Youth Cohorts »
In parts of the developing world, a high proportion of young people relative to the population can be destabilizing, particularly where this generation will be faced with a lack of educational and employment opportunities, high-density urban communities, gender imbalance, overwhelmed governments and communal tensions. Many will be disenchanted with traditional institutions and religious practice and will be susceptible to ideologues, militias, radicalization and crime. Mass communication will further fuel disillusionment, licentious sexual practices, and a “tyranny-of-the-now” global youth culture, as young people become more aware of what is happening around the world and are able to connect with one another with ease. Many will seek out new opportunities through immigration to areas of better prosperity and openness – a potentially troubling trend to ageing populations in the West and Japan.
Increase in Women and Children At-Risk »
Poverty, war, ethnic conflict, massive migrations and environmental strains will contribute to a significant rise in and increased awareness of women and children at-risk of human trafficking, sexual exploitation, forced labor, and displacement. Globalization, inexpensive travel, porous borders, and high rates of corruption will contribute to an ease of trafficking women and children across countries and regions. At-risk women and children will continue to experience a greater hazard of HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, and other global pandemics, causing many deaths and major social and economic disruption. The number of children orphaned by AIDS, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to swell.
Renewed Vision for Societal Relevance by Evangelicals and Pentecostals »
2 commentsA rediscovery is in process of both a more integrated theology and a trend toward social ministry in two of the largest and fastest growing blocks of global Christianity – Evangelicalism and Pentecostalism. They will progressively see themselves as a part of civil society and be willing to work in partnerships with government and secular development initiatives. Church networks will provide infrastructure for disseminating knowledge, resources, and services. Pragmatists within international development circles may increasingly see the religious community as allies or sources of help on many issues. Christian higher education will be reshaped by practical demands for societal relevance. The “Christian agenda” will broaden to include social justice, environmental concerns, and help for those less fortunate.
Rise of Radicalism and Grassroots Religious Persecution »
A continuing rise in radicalism, especially in failed states, will be a consequence of disillusionment and anger over lack of economic opportunities and of ideologies that emphasize ethnic, tribal and religious differences. Religious persecution in predominantly Hindu, Buddhist and Muslim areas will be more grassroots, localized, and at times, government-tolerated. Radical Islam will intensify, become more lethal, be challenging to control, and remain a security threat that spans a generation. Meanwhile, some parts of the Muslim world will liberalize, modernize, and secularize, creating tensions within Muslim circles. Over time, Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups may face declining support due to a lack of compelling vision.
Changing Philanthropy »
2 commentsPrivate channels of giving to the developing world come in the form of philanthropy, investments, and remittances sent home by migrants working abroad. In the coming years these sources of funds will outpace government aid even further than today. They will increasingly bypass the conventional institutional aid architecture, and will move more toward direct engagement with indigenous talent and institutions. Lines of communication with Global South partners will shorten, but the vetting and evaluating of these partnerships will prove challenging to the donor. Monetary aid will be accompanied by an increase in donated labor, creative energy and social capital. Additional innovative uses of technology such as with social networking will be developed to mobilize and engage donors and volunteers. Western philanthropy will be results-oriented to a greater extent, often pragmatically focusing on evidence-based methods and outcomes.
Technology Moves Power to the “Edges” »
The Web is the great equalizer, allowing power to move from the center to the edges, which will lead to a melting down of centralized institutions and traditional bonds. Communication and social networking tools that are progressively less costly, more mobile, and constantly enhanced will allow people movements to emerge that can threaten centralized authority. Lack of accessibility to technology remains an issue in some places.
Cultural Hybridization, Trend toward Religious Nominalism »
There will be multiple modernities. Each region will adapt through their own cultural expressions ideas of what it means to be modern. Globalization will be counterbalanced by a localization of identity and community. Modernity will be expressed differently across generational lines. One common face, however, will be materialism and a move towards religious nominalism. Traditional religious institutions will be eroded. Developed nations will see a growing worldliness in their religious congregations. Some developing nations will follow the same trend, as modernization leads people to lose a living sense of the supernatural.
Non-Readers on the Rise »
1 commentPopulations of predominantly illiterate, semi-literate and traditionally oral learning peoples will increase due to high birth rates in many communities. Continued challenges in providing universal access to basic education for the poor, socially marginalized, and women, will dictate that oral-based methods be the primary means of disseminating information to many people. Modern communication itself is contributing to a growing population of inattentive- and non-readers – undermining words, books and reading. The internet generation will approach learning in vastly different ways and will challenge conventional methods of education.
