Global Trends Analysis
"Teacher, which is the greatest commandment in the Law?" Jesus replied: " 'Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind. This is the first and greatest commandment. And the second is like it: 'Love your neighbor as yourself.' All the Law and the Prophets hang on these two commandments."
Matthew 22:36-40
First Fruit has attempted every decade to characterize the most significant global trends that give context and shape to the future strategies of our foundation. The process of gathering input has entailed formal and informal interviews as well as referencing key secondary sources of information. This is our third time conducting this exercise – first in the late ’80s, then in the late ’90s, and now.
Theological Introduction: How Does Our Faith Inform This Process?
God so loved the world that He gave His only Son to save those who believe in Him. He is the King who has introduced and will ultimately fully establish His Kingdom. In this time of “already but not yet,” we are faced with the effects of the structures of sin. We want to bring the best analysis we have to offer to discern and characterize what we are observing in this fallen world and what we anticipate for the medium-term future.
We acknowledge our finite understanding. The world is full of paradoxes. Only God knows His full plan, but His word reveals that part of His plan is to have His Church be evangels – agents of blessing, positive change and transformation for our world. Observable trends may change over time, but God’s clear pattern is to demonstrate His sovereignty over the whole world through the work of the Holy Spirit in order to glorify Himself. In humility and submission to God’s purposes, we aspire to have this trends analysis help us intelligently and wisely steward our resources in order to love our neighbors and our world.
What Purposes Does This Process Serve?
We see a three-fold purpose in researching global trends:
- The process of listening to myriad trusted and knowledgeable sources becomes a dynamic educational opportunity for First Fruit staff and Board, which helps to shape our future work.
- Not everyone sees the world the same. We are all influenced (even if unwittingly) by who we choose to listen to, what ideological biases we might have, and even our personal sense of optimism or pessimism. Much like a “statement of faith” helps external audiences identify alignment or lack of alignment with us, our Top Trends become a type of position statement.
- These trends represent a synthesis of some of the best understanding of future directions by a host of global thinkers. The process entails a large investment of time. We don’t want it to only serve us. We want to make it widely available to others to the extent that others find it useful for their own work and ministries.
Is This Process Offering Anything Distinctive?
There is no shortage of publications in circulation that offer some version of a megatrends analysis. Much of it derives from extensive research and scholarship. The forms vary from sophisticated risk analysis to scenario planning to educated prognostication. We are not attempting to reinvent the wheel. What we feel is unique is:
- A breadth and diversity of sources
- Over the course of our thirty-three year history, First Fruit has made over 2,000 grants in more than 100 countries. We selected 104 individuals to interview who represent a very broad cross-section of the world
- We actively sought to hear from leaders of the Majority World, women, and the younger generation
- Input was gathered from both secular perspectives as well as the vast global network of Evangelicals and Pentecostals, from both scholars and field practitioners, cutting across multiple disciplines
- An emphasis on first-hand interviews, seeking the view of a multiplicity of counselors, capturing the "voice" of the experts
- A pragmatic orientation, which we hope will help us change directions where called for, and will lead us to innovation and increased relevance in our granting
- An analytic frame that is inclusive of theological critique and which regards religious and social developments as significant
- Theses that should remain accurate, relevant and durable for an extended period
Acknowledged Risks
- The vast majority of the interviews were conducted in the first three quarters of 2008, before two major world events occurred - the global financial crisis and the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States.
- Large-impact, hard-to-predict and rare events of the future (something akin to, say, the 9/11 terrorist attacks) could have massive impact in shaping the future course of our world.
- Our interviewee pool and secondary sources were confined almost exclusively to English speakers.
- The rapid pace of global change may cause some of the trends to have a shorter durable lifespan than we had anticipated.
Profile of Interviewee Pool
The Global Trends research and analysis gave us the great enrichment of interacting with godly, committed men and women from around the world who had deep experience and knowledge from which we could learn. During the last year, we interacted with over a hundred leaders through formal interviews, as well as informal discussions during staff travel and meetings. These interviews were the primary source for our trends research.
From the start we recognized that quality research on Global Trends required a diverse pool of contributors; thus we intentionally sought counselors that represented varied fields, cultures, and thought. In the end, all of our primary sources were people of Christian faith although the range of backgrounds included Protestants, Catholics, Orthodox, and Pentecostals. The sectors from which the interviewees came also represented a broad range, with about half of them being from Christian ministries and another quarter coming from research/academic settings.
Global South leaders represented about 40% of our interviewees. We desired to hear from a substantial number of female leaders; since most evangelical leaders at the global and regional level are men, however, we found it challenging to achieve a better female representation (17 of 104). Over 40% of those interviewed were involved in leadership at global organizations vs. 60% regional leaders.
Another possible shortcoming was a relatively small proportion of younger leaders, i.e., leaders in their 20’s and 30’s (only 4 of 104). We also did not track the age of the organizations represented by our interviewers to assess whether a bias existed between more established or newer perspectives. Roughly 10% of those interviewed held an official position in a global network like WEA or Lausanne.
Advisory Group
On January 11-13, 2009, we gathered a small group of trusted, thoughtful and globally-minded advisors to help us:
- Review the main theses that have emerged from the body of research
- Test these theses (and the driving forces that underlie them) for relevance, accuracy, sharpness of wording, and nuancing
- Discuss the implications of these theses, both in general as well as specific to the Church worldwide
- Consider audiences to whom these Trends could be disseminated and shared as well as the best methods for doing so
The participants were:
- Daniel Bourdanne, General Secretary of the International Fellowship of Evangelical Students (IFES)
- Richard Howell, General Secretary of the Evangelical Fellowship of India (EFI)
- Doug McConnell, Dean of the School of Intercultural Studies at Fuller Theological Seminary
- Jane Overstreet, President/CEO of Development Associates International (DAI)
- Paul Park, Executive Director of First Fruit
- Chris Seiple, President of the Institute of Global Engagement (IGE)
- David Young, founder of Oxford Analytica (via teleconference)
First Fruit Board
Throughout the process, the members of the First Fruit Board provided ongoing advisory, vetting and editorial input. They were the final arbiters of what trends made the list.
